Biotech Valuation Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 58.12

+0.9%

10:30 AM EST

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To: CapitalistHogg™ who wrote (16000)	3/6/2005 6:17:36 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) of 52153

Bighogg, Yes, this is definitely a massive binary event. If the results are good, the stock could go to perhaps $18; if bad, maybe $6. So that call spread looks like it hits it about right; but unhedged long doesn't look so bad either. I just don't have a clue on the chance of success - but if you look at the stock price and my guess as to price on the two outcomes, the market is saying the trial is not going to be successful (or the market is disagreeing with me on the price upon success). FWIW I have a small unhedged long position myself. Peter P.S. Speakiing of binary events, still anxiously awaiting the CTIC Xyotax outcome, presumably this week.

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