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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash

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To: Nostradamus who wrote (588)	9/4/1997 12:45:00 AM
From: Thomas C (Hijacked)	of 5676

I thought I was the only one who was forecasting a major 1997 correction. Looks as if there are many others doing the same here too. I wish I had found this thread earlier. I believe we are on the brink of one of the most historic events of this decade. Namely a major market correction. Why do I say this? Because beginning two weeks ago I looked at the historical price chart of the DJIA during the years 1985-1987 and then compared them to the historical price charts of 1994-1997. The symmetry between the charts is astounding! The basis for my predictions is grounded in large part in technical analysis. I don't know how many people here follow technical analysis but I have come to believe in it very much. I used to think it was a waste of time, but no longer. Central to technical analysis is the underlying psychology which is hidden in the patterns of prices. It is said that technical analysis is applied social psychology. The market is made up of massive crowds and crowds have the power to create trends. Crowds can be very powerful, but they are primitive, and their behavior is simple and repetitive. To see the repetitive nature of crowds, you need only compare the market crashes of 1987 and 1929. ( I am in the process of getting the daily high low and closing prices for the year of 1929 so I can see exactly how it looks but for now I have about 2 months of data from 1929, September and October). I have constructed a normalized price percentage change plot in Excel (which I wish I could post here on SI, anyone know how I can post this to the web so we can all see it?) which compares the percentage change movement of the DJIA in 1929 and 1987 from their all time highs. It is absolutely unbelievable how closely these lines track each other! It is almost as if the 1929 market crash was the fingerprint model for the 1987 crash. AND the really spooky (scary?) thing is that I also have overlayed in the same graph the current 1997 DJIA to date also from its all time high. What I have found is that the current DJIA (since its all time high) is ALMOST EXACTLY tracking the percentage moves of the 1929 and 1987 market crash scenarios. Because of this, I believe I can pinpoint the next peak before prices begin to fall through the floor. The value is 8011 +- 20 points which should occur in about 8-9 trading days from the date of this post (15th or 16th of September). After this last and final peak there will be about 6 more trading days of downward trending prices. The 'last trading day' before the massive selloff crash will be September 24th, 1997 +- 2-3 days. This is the closest you can get to getting tomorrow's newspaper TODAY! ( A traders dream!) Remember the heart of this whole theory is based on the simple idea that crowds are predictable (as evidenced in price patterns). I should point out that the book by Dr. Alexander Elder "Trading for a living" is the basis for a good portion of my understanding about psychology and the markets. I may get into more psychological aspects in future posts. Regards, Thomas Carreno September 4th, 1997 P.S. In a couple days I should have the full 1929 high low close data and will post further conclusions I can make from the data.

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