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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 259.35+0.1%Jan 9 3:59 PM EST
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To: Scott Crumley who wrote (4746)9/4/1997 12:53:00 AM
From: soup   of 213182
 
a) >Looking back, Alomex never seemed like a very happy man (?). I hope hope his/her decision brings him/her some peace. <

I'm sorry he's gone. I was using him as a contrary indicator. The day he'd announce he had bought AAPL, I was going to lighten up.

Now I have to go back to fundamental research.

------------------------------

b) Regarding Jobs.

I believe that common wisdom is wrong but nobody realizes until it becomes the new common wisdom -- which becomes wrong again.

Fifteen years ago, everybody believed to proprietary models and they all made a great deal of money doing it. Yet they were wrong.

AAPL followed that proprietary model as the world and lost out to Windows -- not because of the quality of the Windows technology but in spite of it.

Today, everybody believes in open standards yet the PC world is a witches brew of conflicting hardware and software standards -- hostile to all but the most proficient. The constant is Windows -- for that everybody pays through the nose.

In 1995, AAPL belatedly accepted that common wisdom and issued a clone license to Power Computing. Yesterday they came to the conclusion that common wisdom was wrong and bought that license back.

Credit Jobs looking at the common wisdom ("cloning is good"), deciding it was wrong (not in the interests of AAPL shareholders or customers) and made the most unpopular decision possible -- constricting cloning and delaying CHRP till Rhapsody is ready.

What shareholders want is a prosperous company as reflected in the price of its stock. Market reaction has been moderately positive thus far (proving nothing.) AAPL is deemed to have gotten the Power assets cheap and picked up a point of market share and gotten themselves direct marketing expertise. (If AAPL is going to market semi-proprietary product, they're going to need to control the mechanism for distribution.)

What AAPL users want is:
1) Better hardware and software.
2) Cheaper access to it.
3) Assurance that company will remain solvent.

(I don't think anybody cares if their box has an AAPL of POWC logo, so long as it's affordable and does the job.)

In this regard, I think Job saw that the popular wisdom about cloning would give neither AAPL shareholders nor users what they wanted, and had the courage to ditch it (or seriously modify the equation.)

But I've been wrong before.

soup
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