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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks
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To: Roebear who wrote (22531)3/8/2005 3:34:34 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (3) of 108888
 
The coming recession whether it's 6, 12 or 18 months away will do far more to correct the trade imbalance than just the falling Dollar. At some point consumers will have to quit spending and start saving. I read a pretty good analysis about 6 months ago which talked about different trade imbalance scenarios. Without the US consumer changing his spending habits it would take around 40 on the Dollar index according the analysis presented before the trade # would come back into balance. However if the economy went into recession then it may take I believe on the order of 60. From memory.
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