Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: RealMuLan who wrote (25236)	3/9/2005 9:22:37 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (6) of 116555

Yiwu: I'm always too "earlie". (g) Economically, card chip capability is not consequential compared with the "big two" (PCs and cell phones) markets. Also note that Chinese cell phone sales were way down year-over-year in the last 3 quarters. I don't know how they spell "saturation" over there but it sure creates the same kinds of problems. All the evidence I look at suggests that China's big expansion into this area is going to create some very large write-downs as they are coming into a glutted, fully commoditized market at exactly the wrong time. Another factor for all of us to consider is.... what happens in China when the US consumer is forced to curtail his borrowing/spending? China's expansion depends heavily on export markets, especially the US. When the US consumer finally caves in, there will be very consequential consequences in China. How will China handle such a slow-down at this crucial stage of its economic expansion? I sure do not know, but I expect that it will be traumatic. Nor can we expect China's consumers to take up the slack if they are unemployed. Best, Earlie

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