Some Snips of Mr. Modoff’s view from Cannes- (some highlights from his 60+ page report)
1. We believe insights from seminars, exhibits and over 35 one-on-one
meetings with senior management and industry contacts at key
companies in the wireless industry enable us to provide a leading-edge
update on industry trends.
2. Outlook: 3G is finally happening!
After many years of expectation and promises, 3G appears to be happening. All
elements for a successful deployment are in place: stable infrastructure and small,
power efficient handsets. Our channel checks indicate a major European operator
may shift 50% of its handset volumes to 3G, away from 2G, in 2H05 if price points
are appealing. This is clearly why Motorola is planning to launch 16 new UMTS
handsets in the back half of 2005, and Nokia 10.
We were pleasantly surprised with a large showing of 3G handsets at the 3GSM
congress at Cannes, France. One common theme: size/weight improvements. In a
clear departure from the past, this year handset manufacturers displayed
significantly improved handsets. The first wave of 3G handsets are largely out, and a
clear arrival of competitive small new generation phones are in.
At last year.s show, HSDPA was all talk, and no show. This year Lucent, Nortel
Networks, MOT and Ericsson, almost all major equipment vendors, had live HSDPA
demos. Average speeds on display were 2.1 Mbps, with peak rates as high as
10.8Mbps (ERICY claims 11 Mbps). In anticipation of earlier than expected
deployment of HSDPA, QCOM announced sample availability of its MSM6280,
90nm chipset, supporting up to 7.2 Mbps in 3Q/CY05 and its next-generation
chipset solutions, the MSM7200, a dual-processor architecture supporting
Enhanced Uplink (EUL) and Multimedia Broadcast Multicast Service (MBMS) in
1Q/CY06.
3. QCOM.s announcement of its MSM6280 in 3Q/CY05 and MSM7200 in 1Q/CY06 is
a clear indication of the company.s growing clout in the merchant base band ASIC
market. Interestingly, not one big player is close to QCOM. Modem-Art, a small
startup based in Israel, is the only other company that plans to have a commercial
HSDPA product in CY05. This leads us to believe that QCOM is executing its 3G
strategy with near flawlessness.
4. Finally, we think MOT is taking the lead in delivering innovate mobiles. It had one of
the best physical product lineups on display at the show. Clearly the company leads
NOK in terms of phone introductions and is on a level playing field with the Korean
and Japanese handset suppliers. NOK, on the other hand, appears to be more
focused on software/user interface via its series 60 platform. As we have noted
earlier, NOK and MOT both plan to release a plethora of new 3G handsets this year,
in anticipation of capturing market share at a major European operator.s shift to
WCDMA.
5. Qualcomm leapfrogs in HSDPA
Qualcomm announced completion of live HSDPA calls with several partners at the
show. It demonstrated live HSDPA calls on its TM6275 test mobile. These calls of
voice and data service were conducted in all commercial 3G frequency bands.
800, 850, 1900 and 2100 MHz. Qualcomm was clearly the only company at the
show that had a commercial HSDPA chipset available. As part of its updated
schedule to support further enhancements to this technology roadmap, the
company announced the following:
++Sampling of higher data rates of HSDPA: the MSM6280, 90nm chipset
featuring data rate support for up to 7.2 Mbps is expected to sample in 3Q05.
++Sampling of its EGPRS/WCDMA solutions: engineering samples of the
MSM625 chipset is expected to be available 2Q05.
++90 nm WCDMA solution: the MSM6250A that leverages MSM6250 chipset
with an increased ARM9 core speed of 180MHz for multimedia capability, while
remaining pin and software compatible with the MSM6250 chipset is expected
to be available 2Q05.
++Next-generation chipset solutions: the MSM7200, a dual-processor
architecture and multimedia features of Convergence Platform, with support for
7.2 Mbps or higher HSDPA, Enhanced Uplink (EUL) and Multimedia Broadcast
Multicast Service (MBMS) is expected to be available 1Q06.
The closest to Qualcomm in the market is a startup called Modem-Art. Based in
Israel, the company plans to support an HSDPA 3.6 Mbps call in 1H05. With a
meager 40 engineers, this company has achieved what Texas Instruments has not
been able to do for the past four years.
Before the Cannes show, the Israeli press reported that Modem-Art may be
acquired by Agere sometime this year. In the event that happens, Agere could be
back in the running with the big players in the wireless baseband market. Current
indications suggest the EMP will have a solution in late 2006. Although it is too early
to see who will close this lead, we do not discount Texas Instruments, Ericsson
Mobile Platforms, and Agere, among others, feverishly working on having a
competitive product in the future. |
