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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (22592)	3/10/2005 12:58:08 AM
From: Cogito Ergo Sum	Read Replies (2) of 108880

Slider, Yes I agree... forget NIMBY... . If people really want it the spotted newt is toast, even maybe the Spotted Cat ;O)... The big problem I see with LNG (Algeria, Qatar, Russia and elsewhere) is simply the US needs to rely on a 'not easily secured source of energy'. Period. Democrat or Republican doesn't really matter (OK let's forget Carter)... How can the US 'be' the US without this ? All the trappings of mideast problems remain... not to mention competition with China and to a lesser extent India if they ever really get their act together.. Sure there is Russia.. and America's buddy Putin... does the word fickle and opportunistic seem applicable... ? Maybe I give the US government too much credit .. for thinking ahead and securing easily defensible energy for the next 50 years... could be.. The price of this energy security is a higher cost of energy going forward... Coal ? sure anyone who visits the US DOE sites should know coal is still the champ for base power generation... and the US is blessed with coal, lots of coal, but for cars ? Your home ? Are all Americans and us Canucks (even energy piggier than you guys per capita) going to become Ed Begleys ? chinese want to get off coal... the cities have bad air... So clean coal technology can be implemented... gassification technologies ... these are not cost reducing... From my posted trades here on NRS and other threads my mindfulness of the 'cycle' is moot but notwithstanding that the whole issue of oilsands (no I would not buy COS.UN today) is cheap barrels in the ground in close proximity and easily defensible . There are cheap barrels in the ground right now... I like CBM also..... in fact my largest non PM position is now an unloved CanRoy which has turned it's focus to CBM and will be increasing reserves and hence RLI for quite a while without further acquisitions etc.... and it pays me 16+% rent... I'm not running headlong into loading my PF with oilsands... I try to be a careful shopper .... but strategically ? what trumps the oilsands unless we have a seachange in American behaviour and foreign policy ? I guess a lot depends on just how low one thinks energy is going ? will we see 20$ oil again ? Care to toss out a oil price target ? Do you think it will last ? a V bottom ? Seriously I'm searching here.. A lot of this discussion is clouded by where the price of oil is going to go... Is this near the end of a normal cycle or an imminent harsh correction in an uptrend... If it's close to Andy Xie's prediction and say drops 20 from here ? Tar sands are still in the money nicely... CBM sure is. Mr. Bush wants the US beholding to no one when it comes to energy. Just how low can oil sink in this case ? So low the tarsands are no longer viable ? I think this is counter to Mr. Bush's plans... I'd like a real nice sharp correction here... cash is ready ... we sure are due... but the 64000$ question is ' is this the end of the cycle... it feels a lot like Nasdaq 1999... but is it January, July, or December ? ... We have not had a real gut wrenching huevos frying correction yet ... to buy.. I dunno... what say you ? Normal end of cycle or maybe like what Jimmy Rogers is calling for in China ? a bit of a crash :O) regards Kastel

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