re: I think it will be interesting to watch. I just want some distance between us and them.......'cause I think this one is going to be a very painful birthing process.
You are more optimistic than I am... I think the baby might be a monster.
Maybe but remember I don't think this is going to happen in the immediate future. I think right now we are seeing the warm up.......people demonstrating in the streets, play elections, people demanding more from their leaders, some free press, etc. I think it could take another ten years or more before the big push begins. During that time, the people will need to get more sophisticated.
And it won't happen everywhere at first. It will be in spurts......like with the former Soviet republics. Only a few went democratic in the beginning. Fortunately, those were the first to see an improvement in their economies. That provided the incentive for the next group to make the move to democracy. And now the last group.....the Ukraines, Moldavas, Belarus etc are starting to head in that direction. How long has that been.......over ten years. It takes a long time.
In the meantime, the first democracies like the Czech Republic and Poland are the ones now gaining approval for membership into the EU. That will provide even more incentive for the laggards.
I think the same thing will happen in the ME. First the smaller nations that are already prosperous and better educated like Qatar and Kuwait will start to move in the direction of democracy. Then some of the bigger states like Tunisia or Morocco.....maybe even Saudi Arabia or Iran.......will take the plunge. Finally, the rest will follow. During that time, I bet the first states becoming democratic will form an EU like organization for trade and political stability.
After the ME is done with the democratization process.....probably then, it will be Africa's turn.
It will take probably another 100 years before most of the world is democratic. And then we will begin the painful process of turning into one world with one world gov't.
BTW, as a kid, I had the eastern European transformation all mapped out.......during one of my geeky phases. ;~)
ted |
