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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Brendan W who wrote (20865)3/12/2005 12:22:45 AM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 78476
 
Brendan Watt, my comments on your updates:

VLO. Followed you in with a tiny exploratory position 9/'02. Added a bit 6/'03. At some point with some exploratory positions (or stock buys in general), it's my opinion that one has to determine if one will average up if the stock should move up, or average down if the stock drops after being bought. The other most likely decision is to give up and exit the position.
Like you, I decided to average up with VLO. Unlike you, I'd say I began later - about 3/04. My adds have been very small. I note though that I made 16 purchases in 2004 and 11 in 2005. My last two purchases were 2/25 @ $69.91 and 2/28 @ $74.40. (I've made no sales.) And agree w/what you say: the rate of stock price appreciation causes consternation when one considers adding at this point.

As with refiners, I am also diversified among E&P companies. Among the stocks that you've mentioned, I have been averaging up on DVN (last purchases 2/25 @$47.84 and 3/9 @$49.36) and recently added to PXD. Somewhat late to the party perhaps, I nevertheless have started a very small amount of XTO recently. I don't follow Burlington.

I bought State Street after you discussed it here. I still have my few shares.

I've scanned PFG now after your mention below, but the stock looks too expensive for me. Market cap to assets-under-management is a key criterion that I use, and that fraction is too large for PFG for me to be interested further. (Aside: that's just me and scanning. PFG has other businesses than money management apparently, but I can't easily see a bargain here.)

I've been averaging down on BUD under $50. Had Heineken recently, but decided I like BUD better (business prospects and price -- not the beers themselves), so I closed my HINKY.pk position.

finance.yahoo.com
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