Dabum,
Regarding your comment,
"with all due respect, going long anything in the oil service sector yesterday, even if it's successful, was a high risk low reward play."
Your correct based on TA only. Additionally your trading style does not consider any FA or macro events. And besides, I haven't purchased any OSX stock for quite some time. My purchases have been E&P's only.
I am here investing/trading on two premises and unless you believe the fundamentals of the story you wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
1. We are in the beginning of generational shift away from "paper" into "real assets". Tech and financials are dead as who wants the paper? Do you really want to holding dollars longer term? I don't as the majority of my holdings are now in Canada.
2. With S/D of energy coming back into balance with no real alternatives on the horizon, energy will continue to trend up. Too many people are only looking from a North American perspective regarding energy. The US is not the only game in town and rising inventories here does not mean everything is going to be OK. Check Europe this winter and some utilities in Spain can't run NG power plants becuase they can't supplies.
This is how I will play it.
Find quality E&P's with the potential to grow reserves. I am not worried about buying too soon, only selling too late. Also moving up into the mid-tier stocks with liquidity. You can dump 2,000 shares of DVN very quickly when stops are hit. LOL
KISS
Everyone develops their own startegy and do what they are comfortable with this.
The results of my portfolio from 1995 to the present show what I am doing works very well for me. When I started posting on the strictly drilling thread I had $20k to play with. As of today, my portfolio is worth north of a million dollars. Made many mistakes and the learning curve was brutal at times.
Over the last two years, my draw downs over a period of a few weeks have never been below 5% (total portfolio value). This is more risk than many can accept but I'm comfortable with it.
Contrarian? yes - we shall see.
Michael
BTW, I went back a reread "The Prize" from Daniel Yergin. It's worth reading if you haven't. |
