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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: LLCF who wrote (28493)	3/12/2005 1:28:43 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (3) of 110194

I Think if You Got into a Great Trade Early, it's likely that you'll exit early. (And don't I know it. Sigh). Anyway, I'm just back from a month in New Zealand and my world view has changed. Alot of commodity veterans there too think this is the top of the cycle (as you might guess NZ and OZ are repelete with commodity veterans). I think a global growth--possibly hyper global growth--story has been unleashed. Yes it's perilous, yes it was started with gasoline from the central banks of Japan and the US, and yes it has been driven, in part, up to this point--by unsustainable (insane) US consumer demand. But it's in motion now, and ancillary, knock-on effects are happening in the emerging markets which are flooded with cash. Dare I say it? Greenspan has successfully reflated the world. No doubt it ends in Big Wet Tears, but I've not developed a view as to how.

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