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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: bull_derrick who wrote (22905)	3/13/2005 11:15:56 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (2) of 23153

>>> The other thing written on this board that may not be totally accurate is the concept that price is determined by demand or supply. In this context, I'm talking about short term price differences, not multi year valuations. <<< And this is where the confusion comes in. When I look at supply vs demand, I'm not looking at daily action. I'm looking for the longer term trend and then trying to determine if that trend will continue over the next few days. To do otherwise is to improve your odds of being whipsawed or not getting the correct information that you posted on my board a while ago. Let me give you an example of what I'm talking about. OSTK is listed as a short candidate on Monday, over on my message board. Looking at a weekly chart, the two things I focus on are volume and money flows. The volume indicator is called TSV for time segmented volume. It has a setting of 31 which means it measures 31 day time periods and plots them along a 20 period moving average. Money flows are called MS for Money Stream. MS is also applied to a 20 period moving average. In the chart that follows, volume (TSV31) is below the 20 WEEK moving average and below the zero line. This is a long term view and it is very bearish. The lower window shows money flows well below the 20 week moving average and well below the zero line as well. With volume and money flows being this bearish over a longer period of time, I have to ask myself if I see it continuing in this direction over the next 2-5 days. That's all I'm looking at, at this time. The MM can't play with bid and ask over this time frame. You have a fairly accurate picture of what is happening to volume and money flows. ttrader.com When KB and I talk about trend analysis, we're looking at longer term trends and trying to determine if they will continue in the coming days. I can't speak for KB on this but, I'm not looking out 3 weeks, 3 months or even a year when I use trend analysis. I merely want to determine if the odds favor a 2-5 day move in the direction of the longer term trend and to do that I like to confirm the price action with volume and money flow patterns. The rest of the technical indicators are window dressing. dabum

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