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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: michaelrunge who wrote (28524)	3/13/2005 1:37:57 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) of 110194

I would split the process into two kind of flucht in die sachwerte arenas. One would be those less impacted negatively by global economic fallout. Within that are some goods I would call sustainability items, like food. Energy might fit, but I'd wait to see how it trades in a fallout first. Gold will be a function of whether the Wizards try to run printing presses during a global supply chain crisis. That would be very USD destructive. If so, gold will be a huge winner. If they are restrained, then the USD and short term Treasuries, might hold up reasonably well. You will have to watch their actions to determine that, as I can't exactly predict how they react. My "lean" longer term (but less so this moment, based on the evidence)would be towards helicoptors however. If so, learn the Argentina story by heart. More importantly I would say one of the characteristics of extended Bubbles in everything, is that nobody really wants to bet on lower prices. I'm not really suggesting shorts, but if you look at various indexes, the put premiums are practically non-existent. What not buy some, at least as a hedge?

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