Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: elmatador who wrote (60961)	3/13/2005 2:27:29 PM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (1) of 74559

I'm not PC. All models are wrong. Some models are useful. I'm sceptical about climate models, but I'm not prepared to dismiss them as useless. They certainly can be misused. The inability to predict the weather more than a few days ahead doesn't inspire confidence in this kind of model, but creating a useful climate model doesn't necessarily depend on having good weather prediction modelling. Think of this example. The detail of flow in pipe networks is extremely complex, largely because of turbulent effects, and the full 3D computational fluid dynamics approach can barely model a single pipe bend accurately. But we have semi-empirical 1D flow models than can predict flows and pressures in large-scale networks very reliably. Crude but effective, or, if you like, wrong but useful. Gib

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