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Technology Stocks : Helix Technology, a cold play on semiconductor equipment

HELX 37.24

+0.5%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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From: mopgcw	3/14/2005 2:38:03 AM
	of 1227

GS US Semi Equip - Advantest negative preannouncement portends weaker front-end memory orders Advantest, a Japanese test equipment maker that supplies tools mostly to the memory industry, negatively preannounced its March-qtr results overnight. We believe that the announcement likely portends weaker front-end memory orders in the coming quarters, as the back-end typically leads the front-end into and out of downturns given that back-end equipment has shorter lead times. Our global teams checks suggest that Advantest had been comfortable with its original guidance in early February, so we believe the weakness is recent and likely driven by deteriorating DRAM prices (down about 31% YTD). Our view continues to be that front-end fundamentals will worsen driven by a fall off in memory orders. On the back-end, despite our belief that logic test orders (which drive TERs business) are bottoming-out, our valuation and secular concerns persist. Our coverage view remains Cautious.

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