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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (28500)	3/14/2005 10:28:51 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 110194

For me, it's not just sentiment sorry, i did not mean to lump you into that narrow pigeonhole. i was speaking more generally. because of the leverage in things and financial instruments there's a lot of risk in being long about everything. in consideration of these risks, i finally reached my internal "tipping point" and decided it was time to buy some market sleeping pills--i.e., put insurance so i can sleep at night. i bought some OTM puts on XLE as a partial and imperfect hedge. it seems like it could go either way--the IEA again ratcheted up by 33% its estimate of this year's China CL demand growth. at the same time, they are scaling back non-OPEC supply growth. there are a number of scenarios under which we could get CL peaks at $80-100 this year, especially if the weather complies. OTOH, there is the risk of a rapid unwinding and economic falloff due to any number of structural or exogenous factors we have discussed. in other words, a perfect environment for some hedging.

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