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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (28571)	3/14/2005 11:33:58 AM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Roach's Essay is Curious and Questionable on Two Counts. One, he describes an over-focus on China by global investors, which I think is true, but then makes his own forcast dependent on China. Second, he writes the following: If the Chinese economy is already slowing and the government wants it slow further, then what’s going on in commodity markets? Two possibilities come to mind -- the first being a resurgence of non-Chinese global growth. Unexpected weakness in Japan and Germany -- the second and third largest economies in the world -- argue against that possibility. Unexpected weakness in Japan and Germany, Steve? These are the little conciets and failures of truth that slip easily into longer essays from Economists. Somehow they pass, but I never know why. All the news out of Japan and Germany lately has been, surprisingly, to the upside. Strongly to the upside. LP

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