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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (25582)3/14/2005 1:28:03 PM
From: russwinter  Read Replies (6) of 116555
 
<If China succeeds in slowing its economy, commodity prices would probably ease -- leading to a reduction in inflationary expectations in most major economies and a related easing of concerns in bond markets.>

This is the simplistic view that the cognoscenti may adopt for awhile, when the downturn becomes more evident. I don't agree with it, as once again it ignores that actual outcome of a Train Wreck based China slowdown, is a fracturing of China's money losing export based economy. When these enterprises fail, it will disrupt the global supply chain. Then we will see new trends: perhaps marginally lower commodity prices, but much higher finished goods prices, and a huge trade contraction, combined with acute shortages of imported goods we take for granted.
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