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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: Henry Niman who wrote (22663)3/15/2005 10:11:30 AM
From: sea_urchin  Read Replies (1) of 81003
 
Henry > Flu vaccines are made twice a year. The problem is the evolution of the virus

I was under the impression that the reason for new strains of the flu virus every year was not because of the evolution of the existing virus but because new strains were constantly being produced by human-animal interaction.

> those [1918] antibodies do not protect against more recent versions of flu.

Sure, but for the reason that new strains are constantly being produced, particularly in Asia where the human-animal contact is the highest.

> more infected people walking around and infecting others, which leads to further evolution, which would likely included a major increase in human to human transmission.

Again, I agree but are you quite sure the bird virus evolves in humans? I would imagine, if it does, then, quite randomly, some strains would be more pathogenic and others less.

> The 1918 pandemic was caused by a virus with a 2-5% case fatality rate, so even a 90% drop in the current H5N1 would be more lethal than the 1918 pandemic strain.

Of course, that is the fear, and indeed the speculation, but it seems there is no clarity on how lethal H5N1 actually will be after multiple human to human infections.
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