It's dead anyway, Jill.
Even if the FDA reverses its decision tomorrow, ELN is dead because there is nothing to power a rally. The professionals dumped their long positions 3 nanoseconds after the news, and worse, are now shorting the shinola out of ELN.
But the FDA is not about to do anything. They are still stinging from a long string of bad news dating back to the deaths in the gene therapy trials. They have gotten a ton of bad publicity. The last thing they are going to do is reverse their decision and risk another adverse event. Instead, they are going to let the dust settle. They have zero motivation to get that drug back into clinical use, they don't benefit one bit from that, and they know it.
<< he may be perfectly right and over time, it may prove to be a good monotherapy >>
Maybe so. But personally, I am not willing to plunk down a bunch of money just to sit on a big loser for 2 or 3 years (or more), then finally break even, and feel vindicated because I was correct. Instead, I'd rather put my money to work. It would be more prudent to put your money into CDs for the next several years. At least that way, you'd actually earn something.
This is something that is widely underappreciated, how the math works against you here.... not many people understand that it took the S&P500 a full quarter century just to break even after the crash of 1929. And this is nothing more than a more dramatic example of a scenario that is played out again and again and again very predictably. In fact, because this is so predictable, that is why the professionals are all over these things taking short positions. The downside risk is minimal.
T
Edit: I am sorry Jill, I don't mean to rant and rave, but it really pisses me off the way biotechs and pharmas victimize people who know a thing or two about medicine. They use that knowledge against them and sell them a story, knowing full well a story doesn't equal business success, much less stock market success. And the ones left holding the bag are, once again, retailers. I get so tired of this, I just avoid all the propaganda about how great the products are, and all the wonderful cures they will accomplish, and how many people's lives will be saved, etc. etc. etc. It just makes me sick. And the whole thing is compounded by self-appointed financial experts who constantly give sage advice like, "stay the course... maintain a long time horizon... ". Well, the institutional and professional traders have time horizons that can be measured in milliseconds. But, they require designated bagholders (read: retailers) to unload worthless stock onto. And they require talking heads to convince retailers they are doing the right thing by not imitating the professionals, and instead holding on to big losers for years. |
