I'm very interested in this situation. I'm trying to see a valuation that puts money into the common shareholders' pockets.
According to the 2004 10-K, there are 1,916 (million) in liabilities subject to compromise and 85 in non-current liabilities and minority interest. All remaining convertible preferred has be moved into liabilities, so if we get over 2,001 in valuation, the common has value on a liquidation basis. [Is there any accrued interest unpaid on the bonds? if so, we need to add that to the valuation threshold]
The low, mid, and high examiner's alternative valuations are 931, 1,072, and 1,263. Let's use the midpoint, 1,072. That leaves a gap of 929. I understand that real estate, orbital slots, and intellectual property could increase the liquidation value. Any idea how much?
I've also see people assert that the Net Operating Losses could carry a higher value than either the debtor's or examiner's valuation (in some cases five times as much, but I think that's just Yahoo message board... er... enthusiasm). I find it interesting that the examiner actually lowered the NOL valuation. Any thoughts on this?
What's an outcome that gives the common shares value? Rejection of the Chapter 11? A plan that compensates the common (how... cash or new shares?) Can this company pay down some debt and generate cash flow to service the rest and remain operational?
LRLSQ has given back well over 1/2 its initial gain by lunchtime. Something in the documents that isn't playing well?
I'd like to start a dialogue on this. My experience with message boards makes me despair of such a thing. |
