Hello james
Yellowknife gets a DB's newsletter circulated quarterly called the SnapShot which brings the NWT up to speed on progress and plans for the Snap Lake mine.
Yesterday's Spring's issue contained a blurb on Gahcho Kue (Kennady Lake). You may be interested to know that apparently, up to 55 people will be on site this spring/summer and engineering work will include the extraction of a large diameter drilling sample during 2005's first quarter (presumably completed by the end of this month.) Work is well advanced on the engineering component, influenced by the area's environmental conditions, and Environmental baseline and Archeological work is ongoing with the project advancing to permitting later this year.
With the above in mind it may be worth taking a look at where the market is likely to or should be moving MPV shares in the coming weeks.
Allowing for the fact that TAH has lower value per tonne ore, a much smaller resource, is much further away from Yellowknife and will have to take on a load of debt, one might consider using TAH’s current $261m MC as a rough yardstick for where MPV ought to be valued about now. MPV has about 42.38m shares so extrapolating a rough upside the market should be reasonably assigning $6.15/s and based on MPV’s 44% of GK it should reasonably be assigning a floor of $2.70/s.
Doing the same exercise with SGF’s $409m MC and considering the fact that Star has a much, much,… MUCH lower value per tonne ore, is further behind in the mine development process, and will have to take on a load of debt or give up a big % to be carried to production, extrapolating a rough upside, the market should now be reasonably assigning MPV $9.65/s and based on MPV’s 44% of GK it should reasonably be assigning a floor of $4.24/s.
Which ever way you spin the numbers, based on what the market is assigning two inferior diamond plays/potential mines, logically, MPV shares should reasonably be trading at least 2x their current $2.15/s.
The only difference I can see between where MPV shares currently trade and where SGF and TAH are trading, is the lack of MPV PR. So Mr. Kaiser et all aside, I would suggest that a little shareholder message to MPV management might be in order. I’m not sure if you or Frank spoke to same or to DB’s at the PDAC last week, but it would be interesting to know what was discussed with the public and what is intended over the next few months?
Based on the above comparisons, the market quite obviously hasn’t discovered this bottom fish. I suspect, all that is required is a trigger such as the FS and more certainly, a little consistent press coverage and shareholder support from the PR department.
Regards
Vaughn |
