Apple Inc. Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 259.35

+0.1%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Dan Fleuris who wrote (43652)	3/16/2005 1:38:39 PM
From: Doren	Read Replies (2) of 213182

I don't know anything. I'm not invested now, but I have been. At the time I thought Apple was too risky. But that's changed. I'm guessing that Apple will double in price again over the next couple of years. I can't see how they can fail. Windows is so screwed up with viruses. Linux is synergetic so Apple doesn't need to worry about market share anymore. iPods totally rule. Processor speeds are stalled on both sides but IBM seems to be best positioned for a breakthrough. Apple has the option to port to Intel anyway. I think the people here know more about Apple and the personal digital life than most of the analysts from the big companies. The first giant personal computer market was business. I think people are still seeing this business in the light of what has happened. But that's exactly how people perceived the business when Microsoft was laying the foundation to take the lion's share of the PC business from IBM. The second is giant market is the home and media. That means ease of use, networkability. It's time. I don't think that's entirely factored in yet. I think the iPod is really the first true indicator of a vast paradigm shift. iPods are not walkman devices. The ability to store ALL your music on an iPod is a giant paradigm shift and it's a compelling shift. I think it's probably going to change the music business more drastically than the introduction of vinyl. When video clicks in all hell will break loose. The key is connectability. Plug and play. Plug and play isn't important to businesses. They have people to do that. If it takes two days to get a network printer up its no biggie since 100 people use that printer and the time cost per user is spread. But in the home it's going to be the kicker. Where is Apple's Achilles heel? I can think of only two. 1) Despite my sometime antipathy for Jobs, if he died that would probably crush stock prices. 2) Games. But games are a different beast with dedicated machines leading the way and super proprietary technology. They are branching out to TV etc but they are NOT general machines and will never be, so they don't compete really with computers. I personally don't know ANY game freaks. I know it's a big business but my guess is that gamers on WinTel machines will be the LAST to switch. They are stuck in their ways and have too much invested in Windows knowledge. Average people who never play games but use the web, email, digital cameras, PDA/phones will be the ones who get sick of having a sick computer. They have little invested in Windows. They just want things to work. One lost large sale due to a virus will open the way. Two will drive them to madness. Small businesses who don't need Windows necessarily and can use open source or UNIX stuff when they need it will also be coming. Medium and large Windows centric businesses will also be last to switch. Mac heads proselytizing about Macs are not compelling. But there is nothing as compelling as a former Windows small business user who's switched or is in the process of switching and is now a Mac head. It will snowball. I see the switching as being a logarithmic curve, barely perceptible at first but gaining speed. The switching will be largely a stealth thing at first. By the time it really gets factored into the stock price it will be too late. Few will notice a shift from 2% to 2.5%. More will notice at 4%. Everyone will want to jump on at 10% but it may be too late at that point.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next