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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (224434)3/16/2005 4:42:45 PM
From: i-node  Read Replies (1) of 1572142
 
>>> Other than that, I agree that ANWR is a huge gift to Big Oil.

Maybe. But Big Oil may need a gift. [Resounding boos from all corners]. Aside from the national security issue presented by our reliance on foreign sources, Big Oil is also a Big Industry.

Big Oil has a very limited future. 20, 30 years from now, the entire industry faces major problems. Most crude today is refined into gasoline. A 5-10% drop in the demand for gasoline will create a glut of untold proportions. Yes, they can make more kerosene or gas, but that will not bring in the dollars.

5 or 10%? No way, you say?

As hybrids and alternative fuels roll out in quantity over the next 10-15 years, the oil industry, as well as the Middle East, will undergo major upheaval. The oil in ANWR may well be all that will give a fairly huge industry time to transition out of its reliance on gasoline sales.

Much as the tobacco companies have had to, Big Oil needs time to diversify their holdings into fields that are less likely to be hit hard when it comes. And it will. In the meantime, we're not going to be seeing any new refining capacity coming onboard, and we're not going to get any breaks on crude in the oil markets.
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