Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: davidk555 who wrote (21940)	3/17/2005 11:51:24 AM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) of 42834

I doubt if Brinker will be able to call a proper exit to this cyclical bull. But if he does, hats off to him. The reasons why I say so are that (a) at least two of his measures i.e. inflation and valuation, are based on bogus numbers. The Fed has ensured that no matter how crazy things get on the inflation front, the CPI will be below 3 percent, thanks to hedonic pricing, substitution and other creative shenanigans. And valuations based on estimated operating earnings are another trick to make things appear better than they are. Historical PEs are always based in trailing reported earnings Also, the root causes of a bear market might play out very well when you are in a secular bull and on the verge of entering the first cyclical bear-market of the secular bear trend. But are they so clear-cut during the secular bear-market? Do cyclical bears have to end in a bang rather than a whimper? I have my doubts. It would be interesting to see if we do make the high 1200's this year and Brinker is able to call a proper exit from the markets. If he can do it, that would be great. I wish he can do it, but I don't think he can. So let's see.

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