I posted this on the AOL board...would like any input if anyone thinks I'm way off...
Subject: Earnings 3rd Fiscal qtr
Date: 02 Sep 1997 15:31:05 EDT
From: CGull34327
Message-id: <19970902193201.PAA07971@ladder01.news.aol.com>
Okay Mark and everyone I'm going to put a stab into 3rd qtr earnings
Mark I'm using your 25 million break even a 2 cents profit or loss for
Every million dollars.if anyone thinks my sell figures are off please
Give me input I am trying to put in average to low end estimates
60% gross margin on full price games
Worms 2 (Europe) 250,000 x $10.00 (Distribution only) =2,500,000
Worms 2 (US) 50,000 x $30.00 1,500,000
Pinball Addiction 100,000 x $15.00 1,500,000
Ultimate Race 125,000 x $30.00 3,750,000
Dark Earth 200,000 x $30.00 6,000,000
Magic Gold 125,000 x $30.00 3,750,000
Magic Expansion 50,000 x $20.00 1,000,000
Ultimate Civ 75,000 x $20.00 1,500,000
Civ2 125,000 x $20.00 2,500,000
Gp2 125,000 x $20.00 2,500,000
Gp2 97 75,000 x $20.00 1,500,000
Moo2 50,000 x $20.00 1,000,000
X-com3 100,000 x $30.00 3,000,000
7th Legion 100,000 x $30.00 3,000,000
Star trek Generations 50,000 x $30.00 1,500,000
Distribution, Console and budget 5,000,000
=41,500,000 total revenue
- 25,000,000
=16,500,000
16.5 x 2 cents = .33 cents a share
current estimate first call .09 cents
Coy
Subject: Re: Earnings 3rd Fiscal qtr
Date: 03 Sep 1997 21:28:02 EDT
From: CGull34327
Message-id: <19970904012800.VAA08624@ladder02.news.aol.com>
My first post was reposted on another board...so I explained why
<<That is WAY, WAY, WAY off for SBYT...Coy forgot that these companies book their sales when they SHIP the product, NOT when they actually sell off of the shelf...MOO2,>>
I'm not completely way off, and even if earnings come in half of my projections for the holiday quarter they will beat estimates by 100%. I will explain my projections for each game; oh, and yes, I do know that products are counted when shiped.
Worms 2: Original Worms sold more than 1 Mil copies in Europe. SBYT will only distribute Worms 2 in Europe receiving $10 per copy, but will publish and distribute in the rest of the world. For the orginal Worms game, which has sold over 1 Mil copies a sequal during the holiday season should easily be 250.000 +
Pinnball Adiction: Also a new release by the makers of Worms 2. Initial shipment should also be 50.000-100.000. Reason: Microprose has a very strong world wide distribution network (in Europe they distribute Borderbund, Expert Software and 3do).
Ultimate Race: By Kalisto and Dark Earth, which was on the cover of last months Computer Gaming World, UK Edition. These are very high quality games. See www.kalisto.com for more info.
Magic Gold: which will consist of multi-player add-on packages. This should also easily surpass the 100.000-125.000 mark.
Magic Spells of the Ancients: add-on disk. Should at least surpass 50.000.
Ultimate Civ: new scenarios and scenario builder.
Civ 2 has sold almost 1 Mil copies and last quarter they had re-orders of 60.000; this during the slowest periods. Re-orders should be at least 100.000 world wide for the holiday season.
Grand Prix 2: has sold over 1 Mil copies world wide, also had 60.000 re-order last quarter, and expect the same of re-orders of at least 100.000 for the holiday season.
Grand Prix 97': add-on disk updates teams, colours, etc, to Grand Prix 2.
MOO 2: is still selling well. In the August 97' PC Player, German edition, MOO2 is placed number 4. It is at a reduced price point at this time, but will expect re-orders world wide of 30.000 - 60.000 for the holiday season.
X-com 3: number 3 accroding to Softtrends, July edition, having sold 32.812 units within two weeks. I would expect this to have re-orders of at least 100.000 world wide for the holiday season.
7th Legion: will be released Oct 2nd, 97', but shipments take place at the end of Sept 97'. Has very good reviews; could have re-orders anywhere from 50.000-100.000, or more, world wide.
Star Trek Generations: the only game not well received in the US (besides Grand Prix 2, which is solely a game for SBYT European customer), but is selling briskly in Europe.
PC Gamer, UK edition, rated this game of the month at 93%. But PC Gamer, US edition, rated this game at 64%.
Budget Software: re-release of Top Gun, Conquer the World, Conquer the Skies, Conquer the Universe.
European Distribution Revenue is usually $2-3Mil in a normal quarter.
Yes, indeed there are 1500 products fighting for shelf-space, but only a small percentage of these will make it to the retail channels. I.e. Electronic Arts, Activision, SBYT, etc.
In regards to SBYT's $40 Mil debt - they do have $40 Mil in cash. And yes, I do agree that debt needs to be payed off. Fact remains that Steve Race has a specific strategy behind his doings, which is explained in detail in the quarterly conference calls, as well as annual reports. Don't think for a minute Steve Race does not realize how important the console market is; afterall, he was President of US Sony Playstation and was a major factor
in introducing the playstation to the US market. As for postings on the SBYT board: there is a lot of time spent on research in Magazines, conversations with people in the field, customers, etc not just in the US but also abroad, specifically in Europe, where I just spent one month in several countries looking up and researching the computer gaming industry.
Any further questions may be addressed on the SBYT board.
Coy |
