The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (28308)	3/17/2005 10:24:05 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) of 306849

yes, i was aware of what the question was (thanks to the clairvoyant ild, not to the person who posed the question). mine was a side comment. wrong in believing oil prices will collapse during the next recession i don't think anybody seriously believes oil prices won't be hurt by a recession. it's pretty academic that an outright and significant decline in demand is going to have a negative effect on prices. i think a more critical issue is what kind of long term average price assumptions are being used as thresholds for greenlighting new projects. if those prices are more than 50% below spot or the 72-month strip average, then that is just going to exacerbate supply problems in the long run. the EIA expects supply to grow by some 50% over the next 15-20 years. even if that turns out to be geologically feasible, it can only happen with massive investments of capital, which companies (and countries) are unwilling to commit due to fear of a price crash.

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