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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: ild who wrote (25864)3/18/2005 8:46:08 AM
From: TH  Read Replies (2) of 116555
 
ild,

Sorry, I try to make an effort to avoid industry jargon. I just assumed that you were aware of Collins and Aikman, as you follow general automotive as I do.

Collins and Aikman is a troubled company providing a range of interior components. There is a long history with this one, but the nutshell is that they are not a Tier One and they are too big to be just a Tier Two. In short, they tried to be bigger than they needed to be, and the big oaks in the forest (Delphi, Lear, JCI, Magna, Visteon) blocked most of the light and drank most of the water.

Now I fear they are over, and lots of people will flood the job market in the months ahead. I know many people who work for them, and one of my very best friends is in their finance department. We discussed shorting this one to zero back in January, but we both agreed at the time that the influence of one variable was too potentially risky.

yahoo.reuters.com

Everyone in interiors is talking about this situation, but it should come as no surprise to anyone who has been paying attention. This C&A was just not a well run company, and their strategy has never made any sense to me (probably in part because it was a very poor strategy that offered unneeded services that no one wanted to pay for). Many think this is just the tip of the iceberg for automotive suppliers, and more are soon to follow. I am not yet in that camp, but I do see lots and lots of job cuts coming. Probably later this year, as the decline in OEM sales is going to force some difficult decisions across the industry. For example, a very talented woman I know is now a free agent. I want to hire her today, but the OEM sales decline just ate up a huge chunk of my budget and I do not think they are going to give me the "go" to get her before someone else does. She is an exception and it seems the vast majority who are out of work are having an increasing difficult time finding a new position.

(if you think I'm long winded on SI, you should hear me talk <g/ng). Sorry.

GT
TH
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