Stratfor's Take on "Democracy" in Egypt
My hope is that the Bush Administration is really serious about pushing democracy there - as elsewhere.
Have been attending the tennis at the Pacific Life Open in Palm Desert for the past 10 days - both day and evening sessions. Absolutely exhausting but the tennis has been phenomenal. Weather has ranged from insufferable heat to quite cold. Could rain today in the desert.
Bruce
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Today's Featured Analysis:
* Egypt: The Self-Interest Behind Reforms
stratfor.com
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Egypt: The Self-Interest Behind Reforms
Summary
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said March 13 that democratization in Egypt
and the Middle East cannot be imported from abroad. Though Mubarak has
issued similar statements before, these recent remarks are a signal to the
United States that it needs to temper its call for political reforms, lest
it destabilize not just Cairo but the region. Washington probably will ease
up, as it does not want to set off a chain of "democratic revolutions" --
especially at a time when other issues already threaten to destabilize the
region.
Analysis
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on March 13 responded to U.S. calls for
Cairo to implement democratic political reforms by saying that Egypt and the
Arab Middle East could not democratize based on Western demands. While
calling for the dialogue of civilizations between Arab states and the West,
Mubarak called on the latter to recognize the diverse realities on the
ground in Arab countries.
Mubarak, who has continuously presided over Egypt since 1981 and previously
resisted calls for democracy, understands that this time the situation is
different -- Washington, in President George W. Bush's second term, is not
just engaged in rhetorical atmospherics. Therefore, the Egyptian president
sent a gentle signal-cum-reminder to the Bush administration that pushing
too hard on this matter could jeapordize other U.S. alliances in the region
and lead to greater instability at a time when other issues are already
shaking up the Middle East. Washington, which also recognizes the usefulness
of autocratic allies such as Mubarak, will fine-tune its call for democracy
in the Middle East so it will not lead to unintended political upheavals
that ultimately threaten its goals in the region.
The United States is well aware of Egypt's importance as an ally in the
Arab-dominated Middle East. Not only does Egypt wield influence in Arab
world, it is also a major player in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.
Moreover, though Egypt has had some experience with democratic politics, it
has mostly been an authoritarian state. This has led to the classic
situation in which there are no viable political alternatives to the
incumbents -- a situation of which Washington is all too aware. What is most
problematic about regimes such as Egypt who also happen to be U.S. allies is
that in the end, they are run by personalities, families and small cliques.
The real danger arises when a long-serving leader who has been the pivot of
the entire political system comes close to death, whether by natural causes,
assassination, or accident. The Mubarakian system now faces the former
threat -- the leader is not only advanced in age but also seriously ill, and
the the specter of transition looms large. This situation threatens
geopolitical continuity and has the Bush administration seeking solutions by
calling for democratization.
Egypt is not the only country faced with such a potentially destabilizing
situation. Another U.S. ally, the regime of Pakistani President Gen. Pervez
Musharraf, is in similar straits. Though Musharraf is younger than Mubarak
and in good health, the system he presides over revolves around his own
physical -- and hence political -- health. In a post-Sept. 11 world, this is
not a comfortable situation for Washington. The Bush administration is
caught between the need to balance the short-term objective of supporting
critical allies with the long-term objective of geopolitical continuity.
The Pakistani situation is much more malleable, given the civil-military
hybrid Musharrafian system, but Egypt has the Bush administration worried.
This would explain why, in a radical shift, Bush in his latest state of the
union address specifically targeted Egypt and Saudi Arabia as states which
need to democratize. The reaction from Egypt has not altogether been one of
resentment, even though Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit issued a highly
critical response to Bush's call for democracy March 9 and the regime fears
such calls could cause its hold on power to weaken.
Mubarak authorized parliament to enact a new law allowing multiparty
competition in the presidential polls slated for September 2005 and has
promised more such reforms in Egypt's political laws. Furthermore,
apparently because of pressure from Washington, Egyptian opposition leader
Ayman Nour of the Al-Ghad (Tomorrow Party) was released March 15 from the
Tora prison in Cairo. Nour has loudly voiced his intention to run for
Egypt's presidency, although he currently lacks enough public support to
pose a serious threat to Mubarak.
The Egyptian regime's moves are an attempt to offer Washington cosmetic
concessions -- but they also are aimed at preserving authority while the
ruling National Democratic Party figures out a way to consolidate its grip
on power in this uncertain political atmosphere. The seamless adoption of
these reforms will move Washington to calibrate its call in such a way that
it could achieve both its short- and long-term objectives in Egypt, in the
region and beyond. |
