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Technology Stocks : Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)
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To: robert b furman who wrote (97)3/19/2005 12:48:17 AM
From: Lance Bredvold  Read Replies (1) of 195
 
Hi Bob;
Welcome aboard. I've run across your name before though I checked your biography and didn't see any stocks I'm currently interested in other than ACLS. I am fairly heavily invested in this company though I'm not entirely sure I like the industry for the long term. Maybe I've talked about this already, but if so I'll repeat that I think you have purchased at a good price and will be OK. I've gradually grown my respect for management, but at the same time I'm expecting the SEMI business to consolidate and probably become smaller.

My idea is that the industry is maturing and equipment design will mature with less rapid changes and less new investment in new equipment being shared by so many companies which also become lower margin as competition heats up. In other words, I'm hoping to sell in the next recovery at almost $20.00. I don't really know if ACLS will reach that level. EPS of a dollar seemed pretty much in the cards until we suffered the last retrenchment surprisingly early I thought. Another year of good book to bill ratios might have seen a significantly higher PE at ACLS in my opinion.

My uneducated guess is that ACLS is picking up just a small incremental market share and that along with an industrywide recovery should provide someplace to exit comfortably--probably not all my holdings, but I don't want SEMI to be one of my major industrial investment areas--just a minor one.

I have found the ACLS Yahoo board to be half way reasonable and have posted occasionally over there as skiplarson98 but generally I prefer the SI participation. Best regards, Lance
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