Still convinced support for US debt securities are natural private buyers betting on deflation? Mr. Creosote revealed, it's all leveraged speculators and FCBs.
arago4.tn.utwente.nl
All this new credit expansion is piled into financial speculation by the big Pig Men in a monsterous "too big to fail, make my day" casino bet, red apparently. The consumer is now MIA, barely up YTD, not even adding to HELOCs:
Bank Credit has expanded $252.2 billion during the first 10 weeks of the year (19.4% annualized), more than it expanded during the entire year of 2001. Bank Credit jumped $23.2 billion for the week of March 9 to a record $7.0 Trillion. Securities Holdings rose $7.0 billion. Loans & Leases jumped $16.3 billion, with six-week gains of $85 billion. Commercial & Industrial (C&I) loans added $2.8 billion. Real Estate loans rose $14.7 billion, with a three-week gain of a noteworthy $60.4 billion. Real Estate loans have expanded at a 19% rate during the first ten weeks of 2005. Real Estate loans are up $344 billion, or 15%, over the past 52 weeks. For the week, consumer loans dipped $0.8 billion, while Securities loans added $0.7 billion. Other loans declined $1.1 billion.
Carry trades, spreads too narrow, just make it up with volume. I went back to the through, replacing some of my March puts (pretty good month) with GS puts: IV is only 19%).
schaeffersresearch.com
Lots of bearish divergence in the acc/dist and money flows.
stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b50][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G
Combined Bear Stearns, Lehman, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley first quarter revenues were up 29% from the year ago period to a remarkable $31.6 billion. By major category, Principal Transactions were up 11% to $9.3 billion. Investment Banking increased 13% to $ 2.6 billion. Commissions were down 2% to $1.5 billion. Most notably, Interest & Dividends surged an amazing 63% from one year ago to $14.9 billion. And as Interest Expense rose 74% to $12.5 billion, Net Revenues increased 10% to $19.0 billion. How large must positions be (by the brokers and their clients) to generate approximately $60 billion of annual interest and dividends? |
