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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: ild who wrote (28974)3/21/2005 1:27:44 AM
From: ild  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
This Week: March 21, 2005
Don't Discount Discounted Dividends
Using an optimistic version of the dividend discount model, if we assume that the current overvaluation is relieved gradually over a period of 10 years, and that the required return on stocks continues to decline (resulting in higher justified valuations) the probable real return over the coming decade still works out to roughly zero, and the probable nominal total return on the S&P 500 over the coming decade is approximately 2-3%. For readers of these weekly comments, that's starting to become a familiar range.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
hussmanfunds.com
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