re China: Oil/Commodity WMD's = Delusional ?..........
re: Delusional ?
Hmmmm;
That's exactly what they said on March 23rd, 1983; when the Reagan Administration announced the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI).
...and in case you haven't noticed - the "FORMER" (keyword & concept there) Soviet Union isn't laughing now.
- whodathunkit ?
We emerged as the lone Global SuperPower.
MeThinks somehow we kind of enjoy and look to preserve that status.
Then - the Soviet Union was the only threat on the Horizon.
Now - China is the only threat on the Horizon.
Yesterday...Escalating Soviet Spending & Costs on the build up of their Industrial/Military Defense Complex ...led to their Economic collapse and the downfall of their Government.
Today ...escalating Chinese spending & costs on Oil and Commodity's will turn their Boom into a Bust... will bring their Economic collapse (albeit temporary) and the downfall of the present Chinese Government.
- the downfall of the present Chinese Government is the End Game.
The Industrialization & Modernization of China will obviously be a multi-decade story and ideally a Free, Capitalist and Democratic China will emerge.
Most US Investors don't possess even an Elementary understanding of the Chinese Government, the degree of their present Military Build Up; or the fragility of their Economy, Banking System and Social & Political Environment.
If you plan on investing in Oil, or Commodities... you'd better get to know Chinese Economics and Geopolitics better than you know the Sweet 16 during March Madness...
China falls... North Korea is isolated.
Iraq today...Iran tomorrow.
We are the only Economy that can temporarially sustain $80 - $100 Oil.
$80 - $100 Oil will collapse China.
Most people think the ESF is a myth.
Most people would not belive that unregistered Offshore Carribean Hedge Funds are propping up our Treasury Auctions.
Commodity's are the single easiest market to manipulate.
Oil and many Commodity's have joined what many know has transpired within the Gold Markets for some time...as they are no longer trading on their underlying fundamentals, or in "free markets."
re: CHINA
- here's a couple of interesting news bytes:
Taiwan issue could lead to war,says China
Beijing's ANZUS warning
By John Kerin
The Courier-Mail (Australia)
08mar05
thecouriermail.news.com.au
["You have to pull out a map for this one but it's worth it. China claims sovereignty (and oil rights) over all waters leading out to the edge of Asia's continental shelf. This then would include every square foot west of the southern third of Japan, everything west of the Korean peninsula and all the waters around Taiwan. When China chooses to enforce this claim, as is apparently happening now, it is a certainty that all hell will start to break loose in the region. This may be the reason for a US Naval exercise last year involving five aircraft carrier battle groups.
It is on this shelf that small but very significant deposits of oil and gas are known to exist from northern Japan all the way south to the Spratly islands near Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia."]
["China has announced a 12.6% increase in its defense budget for next year, pushing it into an overt arms race with the US. - Reuters, March 4, 2005 "]
["China has begun placing nuclear-capable ballistic missiles on some of its submarines for the first time. - The Washington Times, December 3, 2004."]
China Enacts Law to Stop Taiwan Secession
Mar 13, 8:50 PM (ET)
By Christopher Bodeen
apnews.myway.com
BEIJING (AP) - China's national legislature on Monday overwhelmingly approved a law authorizing a military attack to stop Taiwan from pursuing formal independence, a day after President Hu Jintao told the 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army to be prepared for war.
The measure was approved by a vote of 2,896 to zero, with two abstentions at the closing session of the annual session of the figurehead National People's Congress' annual session.
"We shall step up preparations for possible military struggle and enhance our capabilities to cope with crises, safeguard peace, prevent wars and win the wars if any," the official Xinhua News Agency quoted Hu as saying Sunday.
Hu's comments, made to military delegates at the national legislature, appeared aimed at underlining Beijing's determination to unify with democratically ruled Taiwan, which split from the Chinese mainland in 1949.
Also Sunday, Hu was appointed as chairman of the government's Central Military Commission, a largely symbolic move that capped a generational transfer of power. He already heads a parallel party commission that runs China's military.
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Is China's Economic Boom sustainable ?
- why not hear reality from the mouth of China's Deputy Minister of the Environment:
"The Chinese Miracle Will End Soon"
SPIEGEL Interview with China's Deputy Minister of the Environment
Interview conducted by Andreas Lorenz
Translated from the German by Patrick Kessler
DER SPIEGEL 10/2005 - March 7, 2005
spiegel.de
SPIEGEL: China is dazzling the world with its booming economy, which grew by 9.5 percent. Aren't you pleased with this speed of growth?
Pan: Of course I am pleased with the success of China's economy. But at the same time I am worried.
** We are using too many raw materials to sustain this growth.**
<read that again...Energy Bulls - tattoo it on your foreheads so you see it everytime you look into the mirror>
To produce goods worth $10,000, for example, we need seven times more resources than Japan, nearly six times more than the United States and, perhaps most embarrassing, nearly three times more than India. Things can't, nor should they be allowed to go on like that.
< read that again...if you think China's Expansion is without the risk of collapse >
SPIEGEL: Such a viewpoint is not exactly widespread in your country.
< not widespread among Oilstock Bulls either...as most haven't got beyond the Sports Page, or Comic Sections >
Pan: Many factors are coming together here: Our raw materials are scarce, we don't have enough land, and our population is constantly growing. Currently, there are 1.3 billion people living in China, that's twice as many as 50 years ago. In 2020, there will be 1.5 billion people in China. Cities are growing but desert areas are expanding at the same time; habitable and usable land has been halved over the past 50 years.
SPIEGEL: Still, each year China is strengthening its reputation as an economic Wunderland.
Pan: This miracle will end soon because the environment can no longer keep pace.
Acid rain is falling on one third of the Chinese territory, half of the water in our seven largest rivers is completely useless, while one fourth of our citizens does not have access to clean drinking water.
One third of the urban population is breathing polluted air, and less than 20 percent of the trash in cities is treated and processed in an environmentally sustainable manner. Finally, five of the ten most polluted cities worldwide are in China.
SPIEGEL: How great are the effects of this environmental degradation on the economy?
Pan: It's massive. Because air and water are polluted, we are losing between 8 and 15 percent of our gross domestic product. And that doesn't include the costs for health.
SPIEGEL: But the economic growth fanatics in Beijing will still likely carry on just as before.
Pan: They're still playing the lead role -- for now. For them, the gross domestic product is the only yardstick by which to gauge the government's performance.
***But we are also making another mistake: We are convinced that a prospering economy automatically goes hand in hand with political stability. And I think that's a major blunder.***
** The faster the economy grows, the more quickly we will run the risk of a political crisis if the political reforms cannot keep pace.**
** If the gap between the poor and the rich widens, then regions within China and the society as a whole will become unstable.**
If our democracy and our legal system lag behind the overall economic development, various groups in the population won't be able to protect their own interests. And there's yet another mistake in this thinking.....
SPIEGEL: Which one?
Pan: It's the assumption that the economic growth will give us the financial resources to cope with the crises surrounding the environment, raw materials, and population growth.
SPIEGEL: Why can't that work?
Pan:
** There won't be enough money, and we are simply running out of time. Developed countries with a per capita gross national product of $8,000 to $10,000 can afford that, but we cannot. Before we reach $4,000 per person, different crises in all shapes and forms will hit us. Economically we won't be strong enough to overcome them.**
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There you have it:
"They are running out of time"....their most precious asset is "Time."
A very small window of "time" to turn the historic amount of commodities they have bought into a Modern Industrialized Economic and Military Power.
We can not allow that to happen and we are not going to allow that to happen...and there is only 1 way to do that.
We collapsed the former Soviet Union by forcing them to escalate their Military Spending to unsustainable levels.
- the Soviet Collapse left America as the Worlds only remaining Super Power.
Our Defense Budget exceeds that of the rest of the World Combined.
- that is a staggering statistic.
We are the lone Global Super Power - because of our ability to Economically sustain our Military/Industrial Defense Complex.
...but, now; a new dual threat has emerged upon the Horizon.....
1. Our twin deficits, depreciating currency and draining War on Terrorism
2. CHINA
Their modern Economic Explosion is producing massive amounts of Foreign Currency Reserves.
China has the population and is buying the resource commodities to build a Modern Military & Industrial Complex that alone...has the ability to one day challenge America as the lone Global Super Power.
China's achilles heel - is "time."
And "time" is what we will not and can not allow China to have...
Ramping global Commodity Prices; especially Crude Oil....will "Bust" the Chinese "Boom."
Yesterday; we brought down our only threat - the former Soviet Union, by forcing them into unsustainable levels of Defense Spending.
Today; we will bring down our only threat - the Chinese, by forcing them into unsustainable levels of Spending on Commodities and Natural Resources.
...Gold, Oil and many Commodity's will no longer trade upon traditional underlying fundamentals, or within "Free Markets"...as Oil and Natural Resource Commodity's are now being used as today's "Economic - Weapon of Mass Destruction" to bring down the Chinese Economy and more Importantly... the Chinese Government.
Yesterday - the Soviet Union
Today - China.
Topple the Economy...and you Topple the Government.
tic' toc` |
