Earlie from Earlie:
Many on this thread (yours truly included) expect the market to take a hit sometime in the near term future. Most of us hold this view because we track a broad range of U.S. economic "markers" and it seems that darned near all of them continue to deteriorate. But bubble-dominated markets can remain buoyant far longer than most of us would believe possible and it usually requires some form of "trigger" to topple the sand castle.
I have thought a great deal about "triggers" over the years but have to admit that I have never come close with respect to forecasting their arrival or perceiving their importance. Typically, they have arrived without fanfare and even with the benefit of hindsight, one is left to ponder.... why did THAT particular event or speech or earnings report have so much impact? I have never found a reasonable answer. What I have observed is that ......before the "triggering event" occurred, the market was hugely ripe for a fall and appeared to have been ignoring plenty of bad news. Rings a bell doesn't it.
There is another type of trigger that is becoming very important to me and that is what will "trigger" the final collapse of the American consumers' frenetic borrow/buy frenzy? Again, I am not smart enough to have an answer to this puzzle, but I do know that job security and perceived employment trends have always ranked high on the list. As an observation, I note that Americans with whom I have contact seem to be VERY concerned with this topic of late.... more so than at any time in the past that I can recall.
The stock market is driven as much by emotions as it is by analysis, hence as it moves inexorably towards the next down leg, I find myself paying more and more attention to the attitudes and displayed emotions of fellow traders, "pros" and fund managers. One thing I do know is that when the market does start to fold its tent, these folk always head for the exits with gusto (and frequently exacerbate the collapse through their frenetic, herd-like selling efforts). I note that many of them are "nervous", "twitchy" and looking over their shoulders. Perhaps it is the crowd I have come to know, but not one of them is confident or comfortable and most are worried. A few have already started to "scale out".
Adding it up, the "feel" of the current market for me is that "it won't take much of a trigger to blow it up" and there are a goodly number of possible triggers at hand.
Best, Earlie |
