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To: ManyMoose who wrote (347)3/21/2005 10:46:36 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 725
 
OT

Ultimately, it's 0.1 x 0.1 x 0.1 until the likelihood of ALL conditions being together at once, as they are on earth, is so remote that it defeats even Sagan's Billions.

Maybe for life being likely to be near us, esp. civilization near us, but I'm just about sure there is life out there somewhere. Not only do you have about 100 billion stars in our galaxy and maybe 200 billion galaxies. Assuming our galaxy is twice as big than average and you still get 10,000 billion billion stars.

Go to activemind.com

for the "Drake equasion".

Choose 100bil for stars in our galaxy. Be pessimistic about the other choices. Now multiply the answer by 100 billion or so to get civilizations in the universe.

If I assume 1% of stars have planets (very unlikely) IMO

.33 planets per star with planets that are able to sustain life (its the lowest choice, I'll make the next figure lower to compensate)

Set the percentage of those planets where life evolves to .01%.

The fraction of those that have inteligent life to .01%

The fraction of those that communicate to 1%

and "the fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating civilizations survives" to 1,000 years.

Than muliply by 100 billion to account for all the galaxies and you get over 3 million currently communicating civilizations.

Personally I think a lot of those numbers are much too pesimistic. Personally I think there are at least thousands of civlizations in our galaxy alone.

Tim
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