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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: energyplay who wrote (61267)3/23/2005 12:53:02 PM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Momentarily, the already rich get poorer. It is akin to that brief period of time when introducing a new technology throws people out of work, since older jobs are destroyed faster in the old sector than are created in the new.

Perhaps I need to make this sharper: <<That will last a couple of decades until it reassert itself once again.>>

It goes like that:

1) Politicians try to keep the old structure (welfare) in place and the populace, fails to see that things are changing. (see Germany and France)

2) Ordinary people elect and support politicians that promises keeping the status quo or pursue redistribution as you put. But the script doesn't wait for them. It keeps playing.

3) While this is happening, or perhaps as a result of that, capital pours into other countries and they start getting -relatively- rich.
Freeze frame this and look at it. It is where we are right now.

I am totally and absolutely clueless as how it will develop from here until it reassert itself.

I'm playing with some outcomes:
At times I think: People will not revert to a state of poverty and accept that as their fate.

But as Sweden shows, they have been, slowly, getting -relatively from 3rd higher income to about 20th- poorer and have accepted that as a fact of life.

Perhaps, younger people in richer countries will revolt against the burden of subsidizing elderly and polarize the society, between old and young.

Younger people will emigrate and give up their nationality in seek of greener pasture, moving away from the burden of supporting the older generation.

I'm still thinking...
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