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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: mishedlo who wrote (29069)	3/23/2005 7:09:24 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 110194

funny how conclusions affected by distorted statistics one govna claims tight labor market shouldve seen higher wage growth didnt happen that is because he accepted the distorted jobless rate stat it must be divided by the participation rate of 65% to get actual jobless rate of 8.8% to 9.0% not tight at all like saying fat 300 lb guy has a tight ass just because he was seen in the carnival house of mirrors I thought yesterday about what a tight interest rate is what is neutrality ??? some goofy guy interviewed on CNBC talked about how a neutral rate is in line with GDP growth so 4.0% is neutral this is horse shit economic thought to begin with but with actual GDP growth at 1.7% to 2.5%, we are tight by his definition I remove the hedonics from infotech spending I learned from my mommy never to DOUBLE COUNT more appropriately, a neutral interest rate is in line with prevailing near term price inflation that is a horribly challenging concept to wrap arms around finished retail product prices are relatively flat, since mostly imported from Asia, where currencys are controlled see the CPI, which is an urban imported product measure with housing rent a dominant spice asset prices are in hyper-inflation, like housing, bonds stocks are only treading water versus the falling USDollar costs are in hyper-inflation, for everything under the sun see the PPI wages are flat, since Asian outsourcing and offshoring competition so what is price inflation ??? it is both way up and way down in a crazy world I HAVE NEVER IN MY LIFE SEEN MORE DISTORTED AND CONFUSION in the statistics bulletin board for the US Economy every single major economic statistic is a lie I came up with (after much thought) a nice analogy for hedonics on GDP growth distortion Joe Sixpack plays Michael Jordan one-on-one in basketball MJ wins by 80 pts in the official report 20 pts from the competition on the court multiplied by 4x since MJ jumps four times as high as J6P 20 x 4 = 80 it is pure double counting, the stuff of deception & lies the USGovt loves the speed of infotech they lean too heavily on the productivity card unfortunately, we import productivity from Asia thus no actual movement of new job creation I read that job creation is up 0.3% since 2001 adjusted for population growth what is a neutral interest rate ??? I would say 1% for consumer retail I would say 7% for material supplies I would say 10% for mortgages / jim

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