IDC: PC Outlook Weakens Slightly, Long-Term Growth Solid
Online staff -- Electronic News, 3/23/2005
Despite strong growth in Q4 and the rest of 2004, delayed recovery in Japan and a cautious outlook in the U.S. have led to slightly lower expectations for worldwide PC shipments this year, market research firm IDC reported today.
On that, IDC lowered its forecast for growth in total worldwide PC shipments from 10.1 percent in November 2004 to 9.7 percent.
However, on the bright side, demand is likely to shift into later years and the growth forecast remains above 8 percent through the end of 2009, the firm believes. Total shipments are expected to reach 195.4 million this year, valued at $209 billion. Shipments are projected to reach 273 million in 2009 with a value of $245 billion.
“Despite fears of slowing growth, particularly in the U.S. consumer segment, the PC market was fairly robust in the fourth quarter of 2004 with strong demand in the consumer and business segments,” said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s worldwide quarterly PC tracker research, in a statement.
While overall growth this year is to be slower than 2004, IDC expects to see continued strength in portables and in emerging markets.
Long-term drivers such as mobile adoption, replacement of older systems, and growing penetration are predicted to support healthy growth through the end of the decade, the firm reported.
“While IT buyers in the United States have indicated firm intentions to buy in 2005, we have kept the U.S. forecast modest because of what we see as a host of risk factors,” mentioned Roger Kay, VP of client computing at IDC, in the statement.
“These factors include a recovery that appears to be getting long in the tooth, a lack of jobs growth, rising budget and trade deficits, persistently high oil prices, a treasury-draining foreign war, rising interest rates, a stock market that continues to move sideways, and record-low household savings rates,” he added.
Here in the United States, the U.S. market is expected to slow to 7.6 percent growth this year, following a second year of nearly 11 percent growth. U.S. consumer growth may fall to low single digits in Q1, but full-year growth should top 7 percent, the Framingham, Mass.-based firm said. Business growth will lead the U.S. market while the public sector is expected to trail other segments.
In Western Europe, adoption of portable PCs continues to fuel growth with growth in portable PC shipments predicted to top 20 percent this year following more than 30 percent growth last year, and nearly 40 percent in 2003. The consumer segment remains a key driver in the Western European market with portable shipments growth of more than 40 percent outpacing the commercial segment by roughly 5 points. Growth of desktop PC shipments is expected to slow to low single-digits from nearly 10 percent last year.
In Japan, the business segment continues to lead the market, although relatively strong growth of 12 percent last year is expected to fall below 5 percent this year. Unfortunately, the Japanese consumer and public sectors have not recovered, and growth in these segments is expected to be roughly flat.
Finally, in the Asia/Pacific region, growth is expected to slow from over 16 percent last year, but remain in double-digits despite the Indian Ocean Tsunami and efforts to control China’s economy, IDC reported. Public sector growth in the region is expected to outpace growth in business segments by the end of the year, while consumer growth will slip into single-digits, IDC concluded. |
