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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: John Vosilla who wrote (29277)	3/24/2005 12:42:20 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (5) of 110194

in 1980's my work was on computer system failure analysis we used a Mean Time Between Failure statistic often like MTBF for VAX 7500 is 10,000 hrs like MTBF for certain storage device is 6000 hrs in the last 30 days, we have four explosions in Texas in their refinery facilities 4 within 30 days my experience tells me several things - refineries are at full tilt operations - accidents are happening more frequently - we are way way short of refinery capacity - foreign events are making the situation worse if I had to assess, I would say in a normal background, the odds of 4 accidents in 30 days is somewhere between 1 in a million and 1 in a billion buy energy, especially on pullbacks look for crude oil to hit $70 this late summer look for gasoline to hit $2.50 to $3.0 before end of year the world war will be much more recognized in the coming months the age of militarization toward oil supply is HERE NOW the UNASKED question is whether any of 4 accidents in Texas were bomb incidents / jim

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