Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: russwinter who wrote (26234)	3/24/2005 1:52:44 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

Mish: I have often wondered if tracking P/C ratios makes much sense at all. Today we have those 300,000 LU calls skewing the call side but we could also have seen a bullish bet by shorting 300,000 LU puts. Given that bullish bets can be made either with calls or puts and given that someone always has to take the other side of the trade, to what extent is all of this just noise anyway? Would it make more sense to track small speculator puts and calls? Even if it could be done you still have the problem of both short puts, and long calls being bullish. Then again you have covered calls which are quite different that shorting calls or going long calls straight up. I often wonder if this is just complete noise almost all of the time, barring “unusual” activity from retail investors.I have also not figured out how to track what I am asking or if it can even be done. Finally do you make any distinction between QQQ puts and calls vs non-index puts and calls and if so why? John Succo Minyanville: I agree that it is noise as you point out. I pay no attention to p/c. I look at implied vols for sentiment. Right now that is still complacent, but not recklessly so.

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