Stratfor sees POSSIBLE PROGRESS IN IRAQ
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* Iraq: Is the Tide Turning Against the Insurgency?
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Other Enhanced Analyses:
* China's Long March to Bankruptcy
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Iraq: Is the Tide Turning Against the Insurgency?
Summary
Iraqi insurgents engaged a U.S. military convoy March 20 in broad daylight
near Salman Pak in the "Triangle of Death" southeast of Baghdad. Some 40 in
number, the insurgents lost at least half their assault force in the ensuing
battle. In another attack on the same day, insurgents lost 17 fighters when
they ambushed an Iraqi police convoy in Mosul. These two attacks were a
departure from standard insurgent tactics and could indicate a shift in the
initiative toward the coalition and Interim Iraqi Government.
Analysis
Around noon March 20, some 40 Iraqi insurgents attacked an artillery convoy
escorted by the 617th Military Police Company southeast of Baghdad near
Salman Pak. In the ensuing battle, U.S. soldiers killed 26 insurgents and
suffered six wounded (no U.S. deaths were reported). Policing the
battlefield after the attack, the Kentucky National Guardsmen recovered
several rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers, 16 RPG rounds, 13 RPK
machine guns, 22 AKM assault rifles and 40 hand grenades. The large number
of weapons led army personnel to speculate that the insurgents intended to
conduct a prolonged battle if necessary.
Later that day in Mosul, insurgents also attacked a convoy of Iraqi security
officials. Their escorts returned fire, killing 17 attackers. The
insurgents' tactics at Mosul resembled those used near Salman Pak, which
could indicate a change in the way insurgents are attacking convoys. Such
attacks have typically involved remotely triggered roadside bombs rather
than RPGs and small arms, and they have rarely occurred in broad daylight.
Such a bold change in insurgent tactics may signal an effort to regain the
initiative after the insurgents failed to disrupt the January 30 elections
or the March 18 opening session of the Transitional National Assembly (TNA).
It also could be in response to a lack of success in causing casualties
among U.S. forces in convoy attacks as American troops improve their own
defensive tactics. In any case, the new tactic has not worked very well for
the insurgents, who have miscalculated in open engagements with U.S. forces
and have suffered accordingly.
Iraqi government troops also are gaining ground. On March 22, Iraqi
commandos, backed up by U.S. ground troops and aircraft, raided an insurgent
camp near Tikrit. The Iraqis reported that 85 militants were killed in the
raid. The coalition has said little about the operation, letting the Iraqis
release most of the information and take most of the credit. While accounts
of the raid vary -- the Iraqis could be overstating the number of enemy
killed -- it is significant that the Interim Iraqi Government (IIG) is able
to take credit for the victory as political developments and public
sentiment turn against the insurgents but not necessarily toward the United
States.
Several other events since the beginning of the year can be viewed as IIG
victories. In addition to the January elections and the convening of the TNA
six weeks later, public sentiment against the insurgency is growing -- as
evidenced by public protests and denunciations of the suicide bombing in Al
Hillah that killed 125 Iraqis on Feb. 28. Amid rumors that the bomber was a
Jordanian jihadist, protestors in Baghdad pulled the Jordanian flag down
from Amman's embassy and replaced it with the Iraqi flag. Iraqi citizens
also have been shooting at insurgents. In one March 22 incident, shopkeepers
in Baghdad's Doura neighborhood returned fire when masked gunmen entered
their street and started shooting at civilians.
As the political process evolves, further government victories could be in
the offing. Intense negotiations on the formation of the Cabinet, involving
the United Iraqi Alliance, Kurdish List, Sunnis and other factions, have
already begun. With Sunnis incorporated into a new government, progress on
the political front likely will lead to further success on the battlefield
as U.S. and Iraqi forces continue to keep pressure on the insurgents with
raids, arrests and all-out offensive operations. These developments
ultimately will support the U.S. strategy of turning the combat burden over
to an emboldened and maturing Iraqi army.
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