Hi Tom. Here is my take on the HUI, FWIW.
Look at this monthly chart.
bigcharts.marketwatch.com
In the last 4 years, how many times has there only been a single dark candle? One, and that one was the drop from 240 to 180. In other words, I find it unlikely that the current drop is over. With the RSI sitting on 50, MACD declining, and slow sto's reaching the 20 area for the first time since the bull began, a major bottom is on the way. But where will it be?
Hard to look at the HUI objectively and see anything other than a big C wave in progress (The high was at 256 of course, A was the 165 low, and B the recent 245 high). Will C stop at .618, .786, or 1 of A? That corresponds to 185, 170, and 150 HUI, roughly. The attraction of that 150 number is undeniable from a Fib standpoint, as it is close to the 50% correction in the gold bull (36 to 256). I don't want to see it go that far, but it is a possibility for early May.
I hope this is entertaining, even if depressing.
Regards,
crusty |
