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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: jim_p who wrote (40791)3/25/2005 9:04:25 AM
From: XoFruitCake  Read Replies (4) of 206214
 
Jim, Frank and other. It is very interesting to read the board in the last few weeks. It seems like everyone know that oil and energy is a cyclical business, but the debate is when will it end. Some think this cycle is difference and will run much longer and other think this cycle is the same and will end soon. My question is that what objective indicator do you use to make this call? I look at the HO, gasoline and diesel inventory in US. The assumption is that since US is the biggest consumer in the world, if there are excessive production, we will be the first one to see it. What I understand is that the absolute gasoline inventory is higher that 5 year average. But if you look at day of gasoline supply we have in storage, we are very close to 5 year average. And diesel and HO inventory are all down compare to 5 year average. So it seems to me that we still have a way to go on the oil cycle. Any thoughts?

The China story that KB posted in interesting. I read Chinese newspaper daily and every events discussed in the article is reported in Chinese newspaper in the last couple year (the bank corruption etc.). Obviously no one else has drawn the same conclusion as the author. But it certainly enlightening to read his theory.
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