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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: chowder who wrote (40852)	3/26/2005 11:05:34 AM
From: xxreno	Read Replies (1) of 206321

dabum. Thank you for your tireless efforts. One simple way to look at fundamentals for the NG stocks, and to some extent the service stocks is to watch the Bid Week Closing numbers. Que occasionally posts an Xcel spread sheet showing the historical numbers. The Bid Week Close for February 05 was $6.29, and for March was $6.21. The average Bid Week price for Q1 2004 was $5.69. The Bid Week Close for Q1 05 was $6.24. For the E&P's I own and, I believe, many others, their hedge positions are more positive. Therefore one would expect to see better Q1 earnings this year than last. If you assume a $7 number for next Tuesday, NG would only need to average $5.50 for May and June to beat the $5.99 Q2 04 number. And NG would only need $5.86 to beat the Q1 05 number. Considering all of the variables, I would not even hazard a guess regarding what NG will do over the next nine weeks. But am unwilling to bet that NG closes for under $5.86 for May and June. You might check my math, since, as my wife will verify, I occasionally make mistakes. And I hold my own prognostications in no higher esteem than that of others. But yoy and quarter over quarter numbers to not seem to appear unfavorable yet. Good luck. xxreno

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