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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: macavity who wrote (7123)	3/27/2005 5:59:43 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (3) of 33421

Rally in LT yields is just about done. I have managed to sit on my hands for this entire bond-selloff. This has been good - it has gone a lot further than I imagined. Still 30Y yields have still not retraced half the decline from Jun2004. They are hovering around the 1/3 or 38% point. We are now at the 55wkEMA, and from a yield perspective are now overbought on an intermediate (weekly) and short term (daily) view. I try to never catch a falling knife and wait patiently for a break, but the LT trend remains bearish for yields - quarterly charts point down and 1 yr EMAs are downward sloping. A break of last weeks lows @ $TYX<4.77 and this rally is over. We may get a retest after, but that dragonfly doji from Wednesday screams exhaustion. Daily MACD/PPO is about to bearish and the entire rally has been on weakening momentum. Who knows? Not me! macavity

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