value is in the eye of the beholder
there is value which can be unlocked in your #3 through 6 if and when they do the second step of the demutualization, but until that happens, i would guess those stocks go nowhere and perhaps even down until the financial sector improves, at which time BAC will rise as well...most of those stocks have little or no yield, and are trading at much higher P/E ratios than BAC, so the only reason they could be considered less expensive is the eventual second step conversion
i don't know IMH well, but i would be hesitant to buy it until they get their 10-K filed, as i don't know what the "possible material weaknesses or significant deficiencies" may be, do you? when a company makes a statement like that, even though it may end up being nothing, and herb greenberg takes notice, i'd just as soon own something else with less drama...in addition, there is a good chance IMH will cut its dividend this year, just like NLY has and others will...perhaps not dramatically (NLY only lowered theirs from .50 to .45), but it is likely to come down (why not buy LUM, with a dividend that rivals IMH, but without the drama?...LUM trades at book value, or below book value if you take out the interim effects of the hedging, which they say they will hold to maturity, negating the short term fluctuations...they haven't announced their next dividend yet, so that does add risk, but probably no more than IMH)
i own NEW, so we agree on that one to some extent...NEW will raise its dividend again this year (current guidance is 6.50), and they are somewhat unique in this arena as they don't already pay out the bulk of their earnings, so they have more flexibility going forward....that said, i don't agree that NEW makes BAC look expensive...you yourself said NEW is risky, if you compare the two, BAC is so much "safer" it isn't even in the same universe...either one held for the long term will pay off nicely IMHO, but if i was managing money for someone, i wouldn't hesitate for a second to put BAC in their portfolio, whereas i doubt i would add NEW to their holdings
i also own OSHC, but again, i look at it as a several year play on a sudden double when they announce stage 2 of their conversion...ironically, i almost sold my OSHC to put the money into NEW the other day, but i never did |
