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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: chowder who wrote (40852)3/27/2005 4:50:58 PM
From: gregor_us  Read Replies (1) of 206321
 
I've started Reading Your Posts and Am Very Intrigued

by the idea of using FA to enter a trade and using TA to aid in knowing when to sell. I was wondering if you noticed the rise in both Short Interest and OI in the Put options on the XLE, very recently? It appears the Majors too have seen a good rise in Short Interest as well.

My comment about people selling COP and CVX, as examples, does not, indeed, take into account the myriad different sellers. Yes you are right it cannot only be people who are spooked. I was just using hyperbole to highlight the current valuation of these two Names.

I don't follow the fundamentals so I do have a question if anyone can answer it. If peak earnings are to hit this quarter, how does that bode for earnings growth looking forward and what impact will that have on share prices?

A difficult question to answer in such a way as to apply to all stocks in the sector. One answer is that many stocks only rose in February to a point where they corrected gross undervaluation. Now many are merely undervalued. Another answer would be that even if Q1 is peak earnings, the crude futures strip suggest much, much higher earnings in 2005 than 2004. Another answer would be the energy stocks simply get hammered because no one wants to think about the back half of 2005 yet--and "peak earnings" is an idea that could be easily understood, and become popular.

Best,

LP
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