Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (21960)	3/28/2005 1:30:57 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) of 42834

You are right. I remember reading some material explaining why the '66 decline was mild and the ones in '70 and '74 were pretty strong. And IIRC, the '74 low was not all that lower from that in '70...? Also, the same article said that while the 2005-06 decline might be strong enough to be called a bear-market (ie 20 percent plus), it will be relatively modest. However, the next decline, i.e. the 2010 low will be quite dramatic, esp because the author expects the 2007-2008 highs to challenge the 2000 highs... By 2012 or so, we will be 12 years into the secular bear. And somewhere along the way, you can expect to see a replay of what James Grant experienced in 1978... "Let me tell you about 1974-75. A friend of mine... climbed into [a] taxi cab about 1978. This was three years after the bottom. And the cab driver asked him what he did and he told him he was in Wall Street. And he said, "Wall Street?" They still sellin' that crap?" (Laughs)"

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