Far East Markets - Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, China and India Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Far East Markets - Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, China and India

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From: BigSwingingD	3/28/2005 8:28:14 PM
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Korea DATA RELEASE: - Industrial Production (Feb): - 7.3%YoY (vs +14.2% in Jan) - Shipments - Domestic (Feb) : -10.4%YoY (vs + 6.7% in Jan) - Shipments - Export (Feb) : + 0.8%YoY (vs +21.6% in Jan) - Inventory (Feb) : + 9.1%YoY (vs +12.9% in Jan) - Wholesale Sales (Feb) : - 4.2%YoY (vs - 2.2% in Jan) - Retail Sales (Feb) : + 6.0%YoY (vs - 5.6% in Jan) - Factory Investment (Feb) : - 3.6%YoY (vs +15.9% in Jan) A disappointing set of data that shows the economy remains in fragile shape. Although the media has mainly focused on the weak headline industrial output data, this should not have come as a surprise given the recent accumulation in inventory. The most disappointing aspect of the data set revolves around the retail sales data, which grew only 0.2%YoY for Jan/Feb combined (vs -1.6% inQ4). Of greater concern, leading indicators such as domestic shipments and wholesale sales turned down sharply that makes one question the current strength of the consumer recovery, which we would view as weak at best. A continued downturn in exports would not only undermine manufacturing profitability but also employment and the consumer recovery story.

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