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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions

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To: J.K. who wrote (7109)	3/29/2005 12:50:19 AM
From: Walkingshadow	of 8752

&sto1Hi JK, << Because this period is transitional, the data may be suspect for accurate L/R. Beginning with the Jan low, the slope is noticeably flatter. >> I'll buy that... no wait... I mean, I'll short that! I think you are correct. My memories of regression analysis are pretty foggy also, but there are ways to quantitatively determine things like goodness of fit and so forth, and these are probably applicable for our purposes. You make a good point: the January low looks to be an overshoot to the downside, so it may well be more accurate to neglect those first few weeks. It certainly makes a big difference in the slopes. 11 week L/R, slope = - $0.08/week (roughly): 139.142.147.218 17 week L/R, slope = - $0.21/week (roughly): 139.142.147.218 Any way you slice it, I think we are headed down sooner or later. But the rate that happens is probably much closer to the gentler sloped L/R. T

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